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Argentine President-elect Javier Milei departs the Eisenhower Executive Office Building after meeting with Biden administration staff at the White House complex in Washington, U.S., November 28, 2023. His foreign policy, meanwhile, is unabashedly pro-United States and pro-Israel, with a cooler stance on top trade partners Brazil and China. 2 Gita Gopinath and other fund officials, the fund said separately. The IMF has said in the past that dollarization is not a substitute for sound macroeconomic policy. Milei and IMF officials had a first virtual meeting on Friday, which Georgieva called a "very constructive engagement".

Persons: Javier Milei, Kevin Lamarque, Milei, Jake Sullivan, Juan Gonzalez, Benjamin Gedan, Alberto Fernandez, Vladimir Putin, Kristalina Georgieva, Posse, Luis Caputo, Gita Gopinath, Georgieva, Jason Lange, Rodrigo Campos, Rosalba O'Brien, Christopher Cushing Organizations: Argentine, Biden, REUTERS, Rights, U.S, White, National Security, Western, United, Israel, America, Wilson, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Washington, Argentina, United States, Brazil, China, U.S, Moscow, Ukraine, Beijing, Argentine, New York

The economy is likely already in recession and is expected to contract again next year. Shortly after being sworn in as economy minister, Massa in August 2022 pledged to stop printing money to fight inflation. "Markets will likely prefer a Milei victory simply because he is more credible on delivering the fiscal adjustment." "Every investor understands that the macroeconomic adjustments that Argentina needs will inevitably translate into short-term pain." For investors, Argentine stocks traded in New York (.MIAR00000PUS) have been a beacon of hope, up near 15% year to date.

Persons: Sergio Massa, Javier Milei, Luis Robayo, Pilar Tavella, Alejo Czerwonko, Massa, Carlos de Sousa, UBS's, JPMorgan's Diego Celedon, Celedon, Rodrigo Campos, Adam Jourdan, Lisa Shumaker Organizations: por la Patria, La Libertad, University of Buenos, Law School, Global, Peronist, Barclays, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Argentina, Monetary Fund, Itau, IMF, Emerging, UBS Global Wealth Management, Vontobel Asset Management, Argentine, UBS, Thomson Locations: Argentina, University of Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires Argentina, New York, Argentine, outperforming

Brazil's central bank Governor Roberto Campos Neto, speaks at the ReutersNEXT Newsmaker event in New York City, New York, U.S., November 9, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 9 (Reuters) - Brazil's central bank chief Roberto Campos Neto on Thursday said any change to the country's fiscal target would raise concerns, following comments by President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva casting doubt on the government's vow to erase a budget deficit. Since then, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad has broadly reaffirmed Brazil's commitment to "fiscal balance," but lawmakers involved in next year's budget bill are hinting heavily that they aim to loosen the zero-deficit target. In Thursday's interview, Campos Neto highlighted that Brazil has approved important reforms since the COVID pandemic, including an overhaul on consumption taxes, which passed the Senate on Wednesday, but acknowledged the uncertainty on fiscal policy. "And that influences a lot of the variables that are important for us when you make decisions in monetary policy," he reinforced.

Persons: Roberto Campos Neto, Brendan McDermid, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Campos Neto, Lula, Fernando Haddad, Rodrigo Campos, Dan Burns, Marcela Ayres, Mark Porter, Brad Haynes, Nick Macfie Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters NEXT, Finance, Thomson Locations: New York City , New York, U.S, New York, Brazil

[1/3] A state oil company PDVSA's logo is seen at a gas station in Caracas, Venezuela May 17, 2019. The restrictions were removed in response to a deal reached between the country's government and opposition parties for the 2024 election. JPMorgan's index team, which has made no statement as yet on the future treatment of the Venezuelan bonds, has reached out informally to investors to discuss the topic, the sources said. Venezuela and PDVSA have around $60 billion of international bonds outstanding, which are in default. The decision on index membership and weighting is taken by JPMorgan, though any changes usually follow consultations with investors.

Persons: Ivan Alvarado, Rodrigo Campos, Jorgelina, Rosario, Karin Strohecker, Christina Fincher, Nick Zieminski Organizations: REUTERS, JPMorgan, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Caracas, Venezuela, United States, PDVSA, Washington

Investors arrive to the election looking at an economy in recession as a crippling drought hit the key agricultural sector. The gap to the official rate is above 150%. On the line is the survival of the country's $43 billion program with the International Monetary Fund and the possibility that Argentina defaults on its debt for a 10th time. "Dollarization would not cure the main issue in Argentina, which is a really large fiscal problem." "Debt does not need to be an immediate priority," said Khan, who doesn't expect dollarization to top the near-term list either.

Persons: Patricia Bullrich, Martin Cossarini, Javier Milei, Sergio Massa, Alejandro di Bernardo, Bernardo, Milei, Massa, Gabriel Rubinstein, Elijah Oliveros, Rosen, Zulfi Ali, Shamaila Khan, Khan, Hans Humes, Humes, Rodrigo Campos, Karin Strohecker, Susan Fenton Organizations: el Cambio, REUTERS, NEW, International Monetary Fund, Jupiter Asset, Bullrich, WE, JPMorgan, China, Institute of International Finance, IMF, America, PGIM, Oxford Economics, Reuters, Emerging Markets, Asia Pacific, UBS Asset Management, Massa, Greylock Capital Management, Thomson Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, Washington

REUTERS/Leonardo Fernandez Viloria/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK/CARACAS, Oct 19 (Reuters) - Venezuela's sovereign bonds rallied on Thursday, a day after the United States lifted its ban on secondary market trading of some of the country's eurobonds, with investors eyeing a debt restructuring on some $60 billion of defaulted debt. "Prices have almost doubled in the past 24 hours but are still well below the pre-sanctioned levels," said Edward Cowen, CEO of Winterbrook Capital, who has co-invested in a fund to buy Venezuelan debt. Cowen added that a return to Venezuela's regular weighting on global indexes like JPMorgan's would give the prices further support. "I think the market was caught by surprise as the ban on secondary trading of bonds was not expected to be removed this early in the negotiation," said Armando Armenta, senior economist for global economic research at AllianceBernstein. Small funds and investors outside the United States had looked to increase their exposure to Venezuelan bonds on the expectation of debt renegotiations.

Persons: Leonardo Fernandez Viloria, PDVSA, Edward Cowen, Cowen, Armando Armenta, Maria Corina Machado, Rodrigo Campos, Mayela, Marc Jones, Corina Rodriguez, Christina Fincher, Will Dunham Organizations: REUTERS, South, Winterbrook, U.S . Treasury Department, Petroleum, Venezuelan, U.S . State Department, Mayela Armas, Thomson Locations: Bolivar, Caracas, Venezuela, CARACAS, United States, South American, U.S, Venezuela's, Venezuelan, New York, London, Madrid

While most traders are waiting on the sidelines, anxious about the election and unsure of libertarian frontrunner Javier Milei, some daring bond investors are moving in. "There has been a lot of pain from being invested in Argentina over the past decade," Reed said. Rob Citrone, founder of U.S.-based hedge fund Discovery Capital Management, said Argentina presented one of the best opportunities in emerging markets. The depressed values offer another reason to be bullish on Argentina's debt, said Thomas Haugaard, a portfolio manager on the emerging markets debt hard currency team at Janus Henderson Investments in Copenhagen. Armando Armenta, an analyst for Latin American fixed-income and currency markets at AllianceBernstein in New York, said it was a mixed picture.

Persons: Javier Milei, Cristina Sille, Milei, Patricia Bullrich, Sergio Massa, Christine Reed, Reed, Bullrich, Mauricio Macri's, Massa, Rob Citrone, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, Fernandez de Kirchner, Thomas Haugaard, Janus Henderson, Haugaard, Morgan Stanley, Armando Armenta, Milei's, Rodrigo Campos, Carolina Mandl, Adam Jourdan, Paul Simao Organizations: Argentine, REUTERS, Peronist, International Monetary Fund, U.S, Discovery Capital Management, Reuters Graphics Reuters, BancTrust, Reuters, Janus, Janus Henderson Investments, Thomson Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, New York, Ghana, Sri Lanka, Copenhagen, Congress, AllianceBernstein

The financial services trade group said in a report that global debt in dollar terms had risen by $10 trillion in the first half of 2023 and by $100 trillion over the past decade. It said the latest increase has lifted the global debt-to-GDP ratio for a second straight quarter to 336%. Prior to 2023, the debt ratio had been declining for seven quarters. Slower growth, alongside a deceleration in price increases, were behind the debt ratio rise, the report said. "As higher rates and higher debt levels push government interest expenses higher, domestic debt strains are set to increase," the IIF said.

Persons: Florence Lo, Rodrigo Campos, Karin Strohecker, Alexander Smith Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Institute of International Finance, Reuters, Federal, Thomson Locations: United States, Japan, Britain, France, China, India, Brazil, Korea, Thailand, U.S

An investor looks at an electronic board showing stock information at a brokerage house in Shanghai, China July 6, 2018. A monthly report from the Institute of International Finance showed non-residents funneled $14.9 billion out of China stocks, the largest monthly outflow on records back to 2015, while Chinese debt saw $5.1 billion in outflows. The broad MSCI stock and currency emerging market indexes posted in August their largest monthly drops since February. Equities fell across all geographical regions while debt posted inflows in Asia, Latam and emerging Europe. Year-to-date numbers through August show a $13.1 billion outflow from China while emerging markets ex-China has seen $139.5 billion in non-resident portfolio inflows.

Persons: Aly, Jonathan Fortun, Fortun, Rodrigo Campos, Chizu Organizations: REUTERS, China, EMs, Institute of International Finance, China's, Reuters Graphics Equity, Emerging, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, China, outflows, Emerging Asia, Latin, Africa, Middle East, Asia, Europe

El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele speaks during a ceremony to lay the first stone of a new public hospital, in San Salvador, El Salvador June 15, 2023. El Salvador's debt repurchases last year and a still-light payments calendar were behind a rally that shrank the premium to hold Salvadoran government debt (.JPMEGDELSR) from above 3,200 basis points in July last year to about 1,000 a year later. Katrina Butt, a senior economist at AllianceBernstein, said that even as the size of the investment is yet to be made public, "Google Cloud's announcement could significantly improve macro fundamentals in El Salvador over time". "Though outperformance of El Salvador has been impressive we think the carry is still attractive given the low default risk." BNP's Marshik said the next leg of the rally could come from good news on El Salvador's relationship with the International Monetary Fund - where the United States is the largest shareholder.

Persons: Nayib Bukele, Jose Cabezas, Nathalie Marshik, Katrina Butt, Shamaila Khan, BNP's Marshik, Siobhan Morden, Rodrigo Campos, Nelson Renteria, Angus MacSwn Organizations: El, San Salvador , El, REUTERS, SALVADOR, Reuters, BNP Paribas, Google, United States, U.S . Embassy, Peace Corps, Central American, U.S, Asia Pacific, UBS Asset Management, International Monetary, IMF, Santander US Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: San Salvador ,, San Salvador , El Salvador, El Salvador, America, Peace, El Salvador's, Asia, United States

Below are five charts showing what's been moved and/or shaken:1/SHOCK FOR THE STOCKSMSCI's 24-country emerging markets (EM) stocks index (.MSCIEF) is down 6% this month. It is still up for the year, though well below the 13.5% gain this year for MSCI's main global index, which has benefited from a boom in U.S. "mega-cap" stocks. "The markets that have underperformed are the lower-yielding markets like Asia," Mike Arno, a portfolio manager at Brandywine Global, said. "The market doesn't seem to think that China is a major threat," said Aegon Asset Management's head of EM debt, Jeff Grills. Reuters Graphics5/OUT OF AFRICAThe other big trouble spot has been Africa, where debt markets have seen a sharp pullback.

Persons: Jason Lee, what's, Tayyip Erdogan's, Katherine Marney, Mike Arno, Jeff, Erdogan, Van Eck's, Eric Fine, Viktor Szabo, Szabo, Marc Jones, Rodrigo Campos, Alex Richardson Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, JPMorgan, Brandywine, FX, HK, EMBI, abrdn, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, Africa, MIWD00000PUS, Hungary, America, Brazil, Argentina, Asia, TURKEY, Gabon, Niger, JPMorgan's Africa, London, New York

REUTERS/Agustin Marcarian/Illustration/File PhotoNEW YORK, Aug 15 (Reuters) - Investors in Argentina's financial markets, where bonds and the peso slid on Monday after central bank moves following a surprise primary election result, said the vote had a silver lining: it would likely hasten long-called-for economic reforms. The result initially introduced uncertainty into asset pricing, with traders selling stocks and dollar bonds - but prices later stabilized and the local stock market closed over 3% higher. Investors said this would outweigh any worries about Milei, despite some of his heterodox pledges, including to axe the central bank and dollarize the economy. Milei faces a significant challenge still to turn the primary election win into a successful run to the presidency. The central bank also increased the benchmark interest rate to 118% from 97%.

Persons: Agustin Marcarian, Javier Milei, Patricia Bullrich, Milei, Kimberley Sperrfechter, Sergio Massa, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, Milei's, Walter Stoeppelwerth, Shamaila Khan, Rowe Price, Samy Muaddi, Rodrigo Campos, Adam Jourdan, Rosalba O'Brien Organizations: Argentine, REUTERS, Economics, Kimberley, Peronist, Investors, Gletir SA, Emerging Markets, Asia Pacific, UBS Asset Management, Jorgelina, Thomson Locations: Argentina, Argentine, MERV, Rosario

THE REVIEWUnder the terms of the $44 billion program agreed in 2022, the funds are released in tranches based on regular reviews of steps Argentina takes to shore up its economy. The IMF did not respond to a request for comment on the likelihood of a board meeting soon to discuss the Argentina program. Argentina made the last IMF payment due end-June partially with its holdings of IMF special-drawing rights (SDRs), but analysts calculated that this has wiped out the country's $1.65 billion in IMF reserve assets. Argentina used $1.1 billion in yuan from a recently extended and expanded swap line with China to complete the June payment to the IMF. Reuters GraphicsFALLING INTO ARREARSMissing payments would automatically put Argentina in default with the IMF because there is no grace period with the multilateral lender.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Sergio Massa, Gordian Kemen, Kemen, Gross, Jorgelina, Rosario, Rodrigo Campos, Karin Strohecker, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: International Monetary Fund, IMF, Standard Chartered Bank, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Argentina, Buenos Aires, Beijing, China

If it cannot secure fresh funds before an approaching deadline, Argentina risks defaulting on repayments to the IMF. Analysts say the central aim of these economic adjustments is to signal to the IMF that Buenos Aires is committed to the program. The left-wing administration has been locked in negotiations with the IMF for months over whether to front-load tranches of the $44 billion program. Both parties said on Sunday that an agreement on the fifth IMF review was close, but not yet finalized. Reporting by Lucinda Elliott in Montevideo, Anna-Catherine Brigida in Buenos Aires, Rodrigo Campos in New York.

Persons: Sergio Massa, Eduardo Levy Yeyati, Eyeing, Marina dal, EcoGo, Alejo Czerwonko, Yeyati, Lucinda Elliott, Catherine Brigida, Rodrigo Campos, Jorgelina de, Karin Strohecker, Catherine Evans Organizations: International Monetary Fund, Economy, Peronist, IMF, Reuters, Emerging, UBS, Analysts, Thomson Locations: BUENOS AIRES, Buenos Aires, Argentina, refinance, Washington, Beijing, Montevideo, Anna, New York, Jorgelina de Rosario, London

Rising tensions between Washington and President Nayib Bukele's government, dwindling prospects of a financing deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the fallout from bitcoin becoming legal tender against a wider difficult macro backdrop had seen El Salvador bonds drop to a quarter of face value last July. "In the summer of 2022, El Salvador bond prices were divorced from fundamentals," said Aaron Stern, managing partner and chief investment officer at Converium Capital in Toronto, who has been holding the country's bonds since last year. "The market was concerned about the administration's willingness to pay," he said, but even now El Salvador offers attractive value when compared to a number of better priced emerging market sovereigns. These were the best performing among sovereign bonds in the first half of the year, with total returns near 60%. "In a year where carry is the main driver of total returns, investors are going to be reticent to take profits too early," said BNP Paribas' Nathalie Marshik, a managing director for Latin America fixed income.

Persons: Nayib Bukele's, buybacks, Aaron Stern, Alejandro Werner, Bukele, there's, Shamaila Khan, Nathalie Marshik, Marshik, Rodrigo Campos, Karin Strohecker, William Maclean Organizations: YORK, Central, International Monetary Fund, El, IMF, Converium Capital, Reuters, Emerging Markets, Asia Pacific, UBS Asset Management, Reuters Graphics JPMorgan, Thomson Locations: El Salvador, Central American, Washington, Toronto, it's, America

"We first need to see Zambia's updated macroeconomic package, which is in part why we have to get restricted," one of the sources said. There will be a restriction period of two weeks, with the option to extend it if both sides agree, two sources added. Amia Capital, Amundi, BlueBay Asset Management, Farallon Capital Management, Greylock Capital and T. Rowe Price comprise the steering committee. Besides net present value (NPV) reductions, talks will focus on how to incorporate the impact of a potential improvement of Zambia's debt carrying capacity, or its ability to handle debt payments. Including in the overhaul a mechanism that would allow for higher payments through coupon payments, debt maturities or a combination of both if Zambia's debt capacity improves was "sacrosanct", one of the sources said.

Persons: Weil, Rowe Price, Jorgelina, Rodrigo Campos, Karin Strohecker Organizations: Paris Club, Newstate Partners, BlueBay Asset Management, Farallon Capital Management, Greylock, Monetary Fund, Bank, IMF, World Bank, Thomson Locations: China, Ghana, Sri Lanka, Zambia, U.S, Amia, Rosario, London, New York, Lincoln

BUENOS AIRES/NEW YORK, June 18 (Reuters) - Argentina and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have a $44 billion dilemma, with the two sides set to meet for crunch talks to revamp the country's huge, wobbling debt deal, key to avoiding default on billions in looming debt payments. Economy Minister Sergio Massa is expected in Washington as early as this week to try to unlock talks to accelerate IMF disbursements and ease economic targets attached to the deal, with investors and traders watching closely. "The fund knows that Argentina is a problem, it is its main debtor, but it seems to me that the negotiation has stagnated. Reuters Graphics'DAMAGE CONTROL'The government is hoping to bring forward over $10 billion in IMF disbursements scheduled for this year, though is reluctant to agree to tough austerity measures with an eye on October general elections where it faces likely defeat. "Investors are paying real attention to signs from the IMF negotiations," said economist Gustavo Ber.

Persons: Sergio Massa, Ricardo Delgado, Massa, Hugo Godoy, Gustavo Ber, Walter Bianchi, Rodrigo Campos, Adam Jourdan, Daniel Wallis Organizations: BUENOS AIRES, International Monetary Fund, Economy, IMF, Reuters Graphics, Reuters, Institute of International Finance, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: BUENOS, Argentina, Washington, Argentine, Buenos Aires, China

NEW YORK/LONDON, June 1 (Reuters) - A bill backed by debt justice campaigners and civil society groups advocating on behalf of economically distressed countries could alter past and future sovereign debt restructurings covered by New York state law - and Wall Street is watching. Senate Bill S4747, the NY Taxpayer and International Debt Crises Protection Act, "relates to New York state's support of international debt relief initiatives for certain developing countries." The initiative has so far failed to accelerate debt relief talks, while private creditors are not even formally included in this initiative. It would "bring badly needed improvements to the framework for resolving unsustainable sovereign debt burdens," according to Nobel Prize-winning U.S. economist Joseph Stiglitz. If this bill passes, "I would recommend issuers not go through New York law, (but) through London or any other jurisdiction," said Rodrigo Olivares-Caminal, professor of banking and finance law at Queen Mary University of London.

Persons: Bill S4747, Alexander Flood, Patricia Fahy, Kathy Hochul, Joseph Stiglitz, Rishikesh Ram Bhandary, THE BILL, Rodrigo Olivares, Caminal, Rodrigo Campos, Jorgelina, Karin Strohecker, Aurora Ellis Organizations: NY Taxpayer, Senate, Institute of International Finance, Paris Club, China, WHO, Economic, Initiative, Boston, Global, Policy, THE, Queen Mary University of London, Thomson Locations: New York, United States, Ukraine, Sri Lanka, Zambia, Rishikesh, London, Paris, Brazil, Argentina, Rosario

"Global debt is now $45 trillion higher than its pre-pandemic level and is expected to continue increasing rapidly," said the IIF in its quarterly Global Debt Monitor. The report partly focused on the effects of last year's rapid rise in rates in some bank balance sheets. The IIF voiced its concern that tighter lending practices among smaller banks would hurt some businesses and households harder. "Shadow banks now account for more than 14% of financial markets, with the majority of growth stemming from a rapid expansion of U.S. investment funds and private debt markets." "With the interest rate differential between EMs and mature markets diminishing, EM local currency debt is less appealing for foreign investors," the IIF said.

"Global debt is now $45 trillion higher than its pre-pandemic level and is expected to continue increasing rapidly," said the IIF in its quarterly Global Debt Monitor. The report partly focused on the effects of last year's rapid rise in rates in some bank balance sheets. "Shadow banks now account for more than 14% of financial markets, with the majority of growth stemming from a rapid expansion of U.S. investment funds and private debt markets." But for others access to markets has been harder or non-existent on either tighter spreads as rates rose in developed markets or fast-rising borrowing costs. "With the interest rate differential between EMs and mature markets diminishing, EM local currency debt is less appealing for foreign investors," the IIF said.

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